The federal government announced in June that it plans to shut down 33 of Canada’s 51 coal fired units, producing estimated GHG reduc-tions of 15 megatonnes by 2025. This means that while 65% of Canada’s thermal units will be closed, their contribution to the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions will only fall from about 13% to 11%. The relatively small emission reductions compared to the large number of closed units is explained by the smaller average size and low use of the mothballed units.

The federal government’s announce-ment aggregates other provincial and corporate coal commitments: Nova Scotia Power Inc. is expected to reduce emissions from its five thermal units by 25% while the province increases its share of renewable energy to 40% by 2020, and Ontario’s Environment Ministry estimates that closing its 15 coal units by 2014 will result in GHG reductions of 19 megatonnes – more than the total federal estimate. The apparent discrepancy is reconciled when increases in electricity demand and increased natural gas generation are accounted for nationally, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

By Jeff Beyer, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)