The last glimmer of opportunity for passing comprehensive climate legislation this session was extinguished in the US Senate as proponents for the measures failed to secure enough votes. Accepting that the American Power Act would not attract the 60 votes needed to avoid a filibuster, Senators Kerry and Lieberman agreed to shelve their plan and focus their attention on a bill by Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid that dealt with the oil spill, energy efficiency, natural gas freight transport, and green jobs. But faced with tepid support on both sides of the Senate, even Reid’s bill was pared down and eventually abandoned altogether.
With midterm elections approaching in November, it is unlikely that major climate legislation will be tabled before winter. A reshuffled House and Senate is expected to bring more Republican representation to Washington, and while the GOP supports “market-based solutions that will decrease emissions,” it specifically opposes cap-and-trade and has voted against most legislative action aimed at dealing with the issue. The Democrats have had trouble galvanizing their members, and this past session’s fractured support could easily seep into next year.
Failure of carbon legislation in the Senate means that broad carbon regulations promulgated by the US Environmental Protection Agency might be the (more expensive) direction the US is heading, or will at least be the regulatory “stick” that discourages further procrastination in the legislature.
Another possible route for the US – with significant Canadian involvement – pivots on the further development and implementation of regional initiatives. The Western Climate Initiative (WCI), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), and the Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord (MGGRA) are each developing their programs. RGGI is already using an operational carbon trading system for emissions from power plants in ten Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. The WCI, whose members represent 20% of US GDP, and 76% of Canadian GDP, released an updated cap-and-trade design summary and is on track to start in January, 2012, recognizing uncertainty exists in California. And the MGGRA presented its final recommendations to US state governors and Canadian provincial premiers as it looks to implement the Accord.
Administrators from each regional initiative are already looking at ways to link their programs so that carbon can become a fungible commodity within the different frameworks. With Canadian climate policy paralyzed by stalled federal action in the US, it seems that comprehensive climate action now rests on the cooperation of sub-national players on both sides of the border.
By Jeff Beyer, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
