As the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) Nov. 29 - Dec. 10 in Cancun nears, observers scrutinizing international action and inaction since COP15 are looking to predict how the event may unfold.
COP15’s hot button issues of maximum temperature rise and reduction targets remain largely unaddressed. The 2010 World Energy Outlook report predicts that emissions under COP15 GHG targets will still cause a notable rise in global CO2 forecast to surpass the international temperature rise target of 2°C. The US, a critical player, is coming to the table with piecemeal climate change bills unlikely to satisfy Copenhagen Accord commitments. Canada is in the same position.
Internationally, progress on GHG mitigation has proven to be more successful. China is increasingly expected to bind its currently non-binding carbon intensity reduction target, and Brazil has effectively met its 2020 reduction target. The EU projects achieving its Kyoto target by 2020, and Japan revealed its plan to develop an emissions trading scheme by April, 2013.
But with the two main sticking points in COP15 still unresolved, what can be expected to be tackled in Cancun?
In a pre-COP16 ministerial meeting of 50 countries in early Nov., discussions focused on priority elements of climate change mitigation: monitoring, reporting, and verification; finance, technology, and capacity building; the Kyoto protocol; and adaptation. Financing commitments of $30 billion for the 2010-2012 period and $100B by 2020 outlined in the Copenhagen Accord are likely to be a particularly strong area of focus as these are considered a critical post-Copenhagen tool in rebuilding the relationship between developing and developed nations.
The outlook for success in at least some of these areas is promising. The US has developed clean energy agreements with India. China has signed an environmental cooperation memorandum of understanding with Canada. Many nations have outlined their 2010-2012 commitments, including $400M by Canada (see Delphi’s previous coverage) and $1B by the US, however the proportion of assistance being offered through loans, as opposed to grants, has surfaced as an area of concern.
Canada, the US, and Mexico have proposed using COP16 to link the Kyoto Protocol with the Montreal Protocol in efforts to reduce hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions (however, the Montreal Protocol does limit the use of chlorinated HCFCs). HFCs are managed under Kyoto, which the US has not ratified, but not the Montreal Protocol, which it has. HFCs have emerged as a substitute for the ozone-depleting substances limited by the Montreal Protocol but are GHGs. Adapting the Montreal Protocol to address HFC emissions, and linking it to Kyoto, would apply binding targets to the US without requiring it to ratify Kyoto.
Pre-COP preparations have laid the framework for consensus on priorities for analysis. While a binding treaty is not expected, COP16 participants can nevertheless promote some successes and advance global action on climate change.
By Cheryl Johnson, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
