A head-to-head race for a Massachusetts senate seat is holding health care and climate change legislation in the balance. On January 19, Democrat Martha Coakley will square off against Republican Scott Brown in an election that could change the shape of the US Senate, and cause drastic changes in the legislation that could get through the chamber of sober second thought.

Currently, the US senate seats are held by 60 Democrats and 40 Republicans. If all Democrats vote together, they have enough votes to defeat a filibuster, which is a tactic to delay legislation that can only be overcome with a 60% majority. Ted Kennedy’s recent death opened up the Massachusetts senate seat, and a win by Republican Scott Brown would split the Senate 59-41 and allow for permanent delays in controversial bills like those dealing with health care and climate change.

Brown has been campaigning on an anti-health care platform, and while he supported limiting GHG emissions in Massachusetts by joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord, he has since expressed his uncertainty about human-caused global warming and the necessity to reduce emissions. With the passage of climate legislation already dancing on a knife’s edge, this vote could significantly change the future of US climate legislation, which would influence Canadian and global efforts to fight climate change.

By Jeff Beyer, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)