On Saturday, the Canadian government submitted its non-binding GHG reductions target to the United Nations, lowering its greenhouse gas reductions commitment and changing its baseline year. The government has committed to a 17% cut in GHGs over 2005 levels by 2020, modifying its consistent pledge of a 20% cut over 2006 levels by 2020.

In absolute terms, Canada’s new pledge means the country can emit 607 Mt of greenhouse gases by 2020, rather than 577 Mt under the previous target. Canada’s emissions actually fell between 2005 and 2006, and the weaker target compounded with the more permissive baseline year means that Canada’s emissions will be about 5% higher in 2020 than they would have been had the original target been kept.

Most of the rest of the world uses 1990 as a reference year for reductions. Should Canada hit its target, it means that, in the intervening 30 years, the country will have actually increased overall emissions by 2.5%,  from 592 Mt in 1990 to 607 Mt in 2020, rather than reduce them.  Using a 1990 baseline year, US targets will show a 3.5% decrease in emissions by 2020.

The change in Canada’s target and baseline year is attributed to harmonizing domestic climate policy with the US, however, going back to 1990 shows that there is a 6% gap between Canadian and US reductions commitments. This illustrates the relevance of baselines when discussing emissions reductions targets.

Europe has pledged a 20% cut over 1990 levels by 2020, with a willingness to increase this pledge to a 30% cut over 1990 levels if other industrialized countries show “comparable effort.”

By Jeff Beyer, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)