March 5, 2026

Procurement in an Age of Trade Wars and Climate Risk

By Adam Schwarz, MBA, FSA, Director of Corporate Sustainability & Reporting

Global supply chains are entering a period of structural volatility. Geopolitical instability, shifting trade policies, expanding regulatory requirements, and growing investor scrutiny are reshaping how companies source goods and manage suppliers. In this environment, procurement has evolved from simply a cost optimization function to a strategic lever for managing operational risk.

For many organizations, this shift is exposing limitations in traditional procurement approaches. Companies that continue to prioritize lowest-cost sourcing without considering regulatory exposure, supplier concentration, or geopolitical risk may find themselves increasingly vulnerable to supply disruptions and compliance challenges.

Sustainable procurement offers a framework for navigating this new reality.

A More Volatile Operating Environment

Despite strong equity markets and pockets of economic resilience, underlying economic indicators suggest a more fragile operating environment for businesses, particularly those dependent on global supply chains. In Canada, economic momentum has softened. GDP contracted in the fourth quarter of 2025, with forecasts suggesting only 1–1.3% growth in 2026 as trade tensions and weaker export demand weigh on expansion. Inflation has eased toward ~2.5%, but input costs remain volatile across manufacturing and logistics sectors, leaving companies with less margin to absorb supplier disruptions or cost shocks.

At the same time, geopolitical instability continues to introduce structural volatility into global supply networks. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with instability affecting key shipping corridors, have disrupted transportation routes and commodity markets. Roughly 20% of global oil flows transit the Strait of Hormuz, meaning even episodic instability in that corridor can trigger energy price volatility that feeds directly into transportation and manufacturing costs. Shipping disruptions have compounded the challenge. Instability in the Red Sea has forced many vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to Asia–Europe shipping times and increasing fuel consumption and vessel capacity constraints. These pressures are reflected in logistics indicators: the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index remains above its long-run average, suggesting supply networks continue to operate under elevated strain relative to historical norms.

Trade policy is also reshaping supply chains. Tariffs, particularly within the United States, have increased significantly in recent years, pushing effective tariff levels on some imports into the mid-to-high teens, while duties on key industrial inputs such as steel, aluminium, and auto components can reach 10–25%. Although trade agreements such as CUSMA continue to shield most Canada–U.S. commerce, targeted tariffs still affect critical inputs used across North American manufacturing supply chains, introducing policy-driven price volatility into procurement decisions.

At the same time, regulatory expectations tied to transparency, environmental performance, and human rights due diligence are expanding across jurisdictions and increasingly extending into supply chains. In Canada, legislation such as the Fighting Against Forced Labour and Child Labour in Supply Chains Act (S-211) and emerging ISSB-aligned disclosure standards are raising expectations around supply chain transparency. Globally, mechanisms such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are linking regulatory compliance directly to trade and market access.

Capital markets are reinforcing this shift. Institutional investors representing more than US$120 trillion in assets through the Principles for Responsible Investment increasingly evaluate companies based on the resilience and transparency of their supply chains. For goods-producing companies, where Scope 3 emissions can represent 70–90% of total emissions, limited supplier visibility can translate into perceived transition risk and higher financing costs.

Taken together, these forces—supply chain volatility, trade fragmentation, regulatory expansion, and investor scrutiny—are reshaping the role of procurement. Research from the World Economic Forum suggests that supply chain disruptions lasting one month or longer occur every 3.7 years on average, with even a disruption lasting 30 days or less can put 3–5% of EBITDA at risk for many companies.

In this environment, procurement decisions increasingly determine cost stability, regulatory exposure, and operational continuity.

Sustainable Procurement as a Strategy for Resilience

Sustainable procurement provides a structured approach for managing these emerging risks.

At its core, sustainable procurement integrates environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into purchasing decisions and supplier management practices to generate long-term value while managing risk across the supply chain. Unlike traditional procurement, which typically prioritizes cost, quality, and delivery timelines, sustainable procurement expands decision-making to include regulatory compliance, supplier governance practices, environmental exposure, and supply chain resilience.

The objective isn’t values-based purchasing. Rather, it’s risk-adjusted sourcing that improves visibility into supply networks and reduces exposure to disruption, non-compliance, and cost volatility.

Operationally, this approach changes how procurement functions operate. Companies begin collecting structured supplier data such as emissions information, labour practices, and geographic exposure, to better understand supply chain risk. ESG and compliance criteria are integrated into RFP scoring and contract terms, while procurement teams evaluate supplier concentration and geographic risk alongside price. Suppliers are often segmented by risk tier, and procurement teams incorporate regulatory exposure or carbon cost into total cost-of-ownership models.

Supplier engagement also becomes more structured. Instead of relying solely on onboarding checks, organizations establish ongoing monitoring processes, supplier reporting frameworks, and periodic risk reviews to maintain visibility into supplier performance.

Integrating these practices requires deliberate executive decisions. Leadership must determine how supplier risk and regulatory exposure will be weighted alongside cost and quality in sourcing decisions, and whether procurement KPIs should reflect risk-adjusted total cost of ownership rather than lowest-price purchasing. Organizations often establish cross-functional governance involving procurement, finance, legal, risk, and sustainability teams while investing in supplier data systems and monitoring tools to improve supply chain transparency.

While integration typically unfolds over 6–18 months, the financial rationale is compelling. Supply chain disruptions can erase 30–50% of one year’s EBITDA over a decade, while supply chain digitization and risk-management initiatives can reduce supply chain costs by up to 15%, lower inventories by 20–30% and improve service levels by up to 20%.

The ROI on sustainable procurement is therefore less about immediate margin expansion and more about resilience: improving cost predictability, strengthening access to regulated markets, and reducing exposure to supply disruptions and compliance failures.

Case Study: McCain Foods

McCain Foods offers a practical example of how sustainable procurement can evolve from policy commitments into operational supply chain strategy.

As the world’s largest producer of frozen potato products, the Canadian-headquartered company relies on thousands of agricultural suppliers across multiple continents. Climate variability, regulatory expansion, and commodity price fluctuations make supply security a strategic priority.

A foundational element of McCain’s approach is its Supplier Code of Conduct, which establishes requirements for labour standards, environmental practices, regulatory compliance, and ethical business conduct. Suppliers must comply with these standards to participate in McCain’s supply chain, and the company maintains the ability to audit suppliers to verify adherence.

Beyond governance requirements, McCain invests directly in strengthening its upstream supply chain. The company has committed to implementing regenerative agriculture practices across all potato acreage used for its products by 2030, engaging farmers in practices designed to improve soil health, crop yields, and climate resilience.

To support this transition, McCain works with a network of roughly 4,400 farmers globally, providing technical guidance, research support, and training to help growers adopt regenerative farming techniques. Programs such as the company’s Routes to Regen initiative offer peer-to-peer knowledge sharing and operational support to reduce the financial risks farmers face when adopting new practices.

The company has also invested in agricultural innovation through its Farms of the Future program, which are commercial-scale research farms that test regenerative practices and technologies before deploying them across the broader supplier network. These facilities generate data on soil health, nutrient management, biodiversity, and crop productivity under regenerative systems.

McCain tracks adoption of these practices across its agricultural supply chain, reporting that 69% of its global potato acreage has been onboarded to its regenerative agriculture framework, with 44% actively implementing the practices.

Taken together, these initiatives illustrate how sustainable procurement can function as a supply assurance strategy by embedding sustainability considerations directly into sourcing decisions while strengthening resilience against climate volatility, regulatory pressure, and commodity price uncertainty. McCain reports improvements in water efficiency, reduced food waste intensity, and lower emissions, all of which contribute to reduced resource costs and lower supply chain risk. Its regenerative agriculture program also helps stabilize crop yields and protect the reliability of a critical upstream supply base.

Five Actions to Integrate Sustainable Procurement

For organizations seeking to strengthen supply chain resilience, sustainable procurement can begin with several practical steps:

  1. Identify supply chain risk and cost exposure
    Executives must first map where supplier risk could materially affect cost, production continuity, or market access. This involves identifying critical inputs, supplier concentration, geographic exposure, and regulatory obligations that affect upstream suppliers.
  2. Integrate risk and compliance into procurement decision criteria
    Sustainable procurement becomes real when sourcing decisions incorporate risk-adjusted cost and not simply lowest-price bids. Procurement teams should embed regulatory exposure, supplier governance practices, and geographic risk into RFP scoring and supplier evaluation models.
  3. Build supplier transparency and data infrastructure
    Organizations must establish structured processes for collecting supplier data, including emissions information, compliance attestations, and material sourcing practices. Without reliable data, supply chain risk can’t be effectively managed.
  4. Embed accountability within procurement leadership
    Sustainable procurement requires clear ownership. Procurement leaders must be accountable for supply chain resilience and regulatory readiness, and they also need to be supported by cross-functional governance involving procurement, finance, risk, and sustainability teams.
  5. Engage strategic suppliers to reduce risk and volatility
    Companies must work directly with critical suppliers to improve transparency, regulatory readiness, and operational resilience. Supplier engagement programs including training, contract restructuring, and diversification strategies can stabilize supply relationships and reduce exposure to geopolitical or regulatory shocks.

The Path Forward

In a world defined by supply chain volatility, regulatory expansion, and growing investor scrutiny, procurement decisions increasingly shape an organization’s ability to operate reliably and competitively.

Sustainable procurement goes beyond being an ESG initiative. It’s a strategic response to a changing operating environment, one that enables companies to manage supply chain risk, maintain market access, and build resilience in an increasingly complex global economy.

Organizations that begin investing in procurement transparency, supplier engagement, and risk-informed sourcing today will be better positioned to navigate the next decade of supply chain disruption.

READY TO BUILD INTERNAL CAPABILITY?

For professionals looking to deepen their expertise and strengthen their ability to navigate supply chain volatility, our sister organization, CBSR, manages the Sustainable Procurement Fellowship (SPF). The program offers practical tools, frameworks, coaching, and a motivated national peer network.

Learn more and apply for the 2026 cohort by March 15: https://cbsr.ca/spf/

Sustainable Procurement Fellowship

 

GET IN TOUCHOrganizations that see procurement as a strategic lever will be better positioned to manage volatility and protect operational continuity. If your team is ready to advance sustainable procurement or map a path toward greater supply chain resilience, connect with us to begin the conversation.

ADAM SCHWARZ

Director, Corporate Sustainability & Reporting

Contact ME